As the United States increases its military presence in the Gulf, Iran is losing control of the world’s most important oil transport route. Strait of HormuzHe warned that it would remain closed in the event of war.
Secretary of the Iranian Strategic Foreign Relations Council Jalal Dehgani Firuzabadi, in war “Energy security will be compromised and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed”he said.
About a fifth of the world’s crude oil flows through this narrow channel, which is just 40 km wide at its narrowest point.
Due to increasing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the United States has steadily increased its military presence in the Gulf region.
However, negotiations between the two countries are ongoing US Department of Transportation Maritime AdministrationOn February 9, it issued a warning to U.S.-flagged merchant vessels to stay as far away from Iranian territorial waters as possible.
According to this statement, oil prices more than 1 percentThe next day it rose and fell slightly.
The former head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service MI6 told the BBC as tensions rose in the region earlier. Sir Alex Younger, “Closing the Strait of Hormuz would frankly be an incredible economic problem given the impact on oil prices.”he said.
How much oil is transported?
Data analytics company VortexAccording to , last year the average day was through the Strait of Hormuz more than 20 million barrelsCrude oil, condensate (a low-density liquid usually made from natural gas) and fuel are piped.
This roughly corresponds to the amount that is transported by sea every year. 600 billion dollarsIt corresponds to energy trading.
Iranian, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates(UAE), KuwaitAnd Iraqalong with most of its crude oil, most of it AsiaExports take place via the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption to the waterway could cause significant delays in global oil deliveries and have an immediate impact on prices.
But analysts warn that a potentially more serious consequence would be increased tensions between Israel and Iran.
How narrow is the neck?
Strait of Hormuz, IranianAnd OmanA channel in between. Inlet and outlet width approx. 50km. At the narrowest point in the middle this width is approx 40km.
However, only the central part of the strait is deep enough for large ships.
Maritime maps show a safe entry lane, a safe exit lane and a buffer zone between the two, particularly for heavy oil tankers.
Overall, large ships are only approx 10 km wideIt has to move through a channel.
Tanker Persian GulfEntry that are disputed areas between Iran and Arab countries To the islands of Greater and Lesser TunbApproaches.
According to many experts, the most likely method of disrupting maritime traffic is military intervention. This situation 1980-1988It took place during the Iran-Iraq War.
Defense doctrine?
Analysts say closing the Strait of Hormuz is akin to Iran having a nuclear weapon. “Deterrent Power”He says it is seen that way.
The international community has long opposed Iran’s pursuit of a military nuclear program.
Major powers have also repeatedly said they will not allow Tehran to use its strategic geographic location to throttle global energy supplies.
Experts generally believe that Iran could temporarily block the strait.
But many are equally confident that the United States and its allies can quickly restore the flow of maritime traffic through military means.
How can Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?
U.S. Congressional Research ServiceAccording to a 2012 report, Iran may take gradual action in the Strait of Hormuz.
The report listed these steps as follows:
- A ban on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is imposed, but the consequences of violating this ban are not clearly stated.
- It is declared that ships passing through the Bosphorus may be inspected or confiscated.
- Fire warning shots at passing ships.
- Target specific ships with military force.
- Laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
- Use of submarines and missiles to target merchant and military ships.
The Greek-flagged tanker Adriande was attacked by Iranians during the 1987 Iran-Iraq War.
Iran against oil tankers in the Iran-Iraq war Silkworm rocketsUse of sea mines in Gulf waters.
One of these mines hit the ship USS Samuel B. Roberts. The USA retaliated.
Iran failed to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but it did significantly increase shipping insurance premiums. This caused traffic jams at the Gulf exit.
What do analysts predict?
Experts estimate that one of the most effective ways to stop the approximately 3,000 Iranian ships that pass through this waterway each month would be to lay mines using fast attack boats and submarines.
The Iranian Navy and the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy could launch attacks on foreign warships and merchant ships.
But large military ships could also become easy targets for Israeli or US air strikes.
Iran’s speedboats are often equipped with anti-ship missiles. Tehran also owns various ships, semi-submersibles and submarines.
Currently, maritime tracking websites use satellite imagery to report the movements of Iranian military vessels near the country’s southern maritime borders.
WHICH COUNTRIES ARE MOST AFFECTED?
According to Vortexa research Saudi Arabiaper day through the Strait of Hormuz 6 million barrels of crude oilExports. That is more than in any of the neighboring countries.
US Energy Information AdministrationAccording to (EIA) forecast, in 2024, 84 percent of crude oil and condensate and 83 percent of liquefied natural gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz will go to Asian markets.
RRP; He points out that China, India, Japan and South Korea are among the largest importers of crude oil passing through the strait.
According to RRP, United StatesIn 2024 approximately 500,000 barrels of crude oilAnd condensateimported. This means that total oil imports are approximately 7 percentand oil consumption 2 percentIt creates.
In the same report, domestic production and CanadaIt is stated that with the increase in imports from the US, US crude oil imports from the Gulf countries fell to their lowest level in almost 40 years this year.
The total share of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz to Europe is less than 1 million barrels per dayIt seems so.
Given all this information; Arab and Asian countries will suffer more than the United States or the European powers that formed a political alliance with Israel in the last conflictIt is understood.
Many Asian countries have good, even close, relations with Iran.
CHINA’S INFLUENCE
China is one of the largest oil consumers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. A significant portion of this oil is sold by Iran below world market prices. This is for Tehran Support in dealing with US sanctionsa vital economic lifeline.
According to EIA, China will reduce Iran’s oil exports to global markets in 2024 about 90 percentI guess you bought it.
Secretary of the Iranian Strategic Foreign Relations Council FirouzabadiIf the Strait of Hormuz is closed, “China will be the first country to be affected by the losses and therefore the negotiations are also important for China.”
Beijing, a major buyer of Iranian oil, is unlikely to welcome rising oil prices or disruptions to shipping routes. China is expected to use its full diplomatic weight to prevent closure of this vital energy corridor.
Energy consulting firm speaks to CNBC Outlook Advisor‘s partner Anas AlhajjiClosing the Strait of Hormuz would likely hurt Iran’s allies more than its enemies, he said.
Anas Alhajji, “They [Iranians] don’t want to do anything that harms themselves first.”he said.
ALTERNATIVE ROUTES
This has been claimed for years Strait of HormuzThe looming closure has prompted oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region to develop alternative export routes.
Saudi ArabiaIn 2019, a natural gas pipeline to transport crude oil was temporarily put back into operation.
United Arab Emirates, inland oil fields 1.5 million barrels per daywith a pipeline with capacity Gulf of OmanIn Port of FujairahHe tied it to it.
Iran in July 2021 Gulf of OmanThe aim is to transport crude oil Goreh-Jask pipelineHe put into service.
About every day on this line 350,000 barrels of oilHowever, it is stated that Iran has not yet reached this amount.
In June last year the EIA United Arab EmiratesAnd Saudiper day from pipelines 2.6 million barrelsHe noted that the unused capacity could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
